Millions of public sector workers, including teachers, are set to benefit from new pay rise recommendations significantly higher than the government’s initial proposals. The latest reports suggest that the School Teachers' Review Body (STRB) has advised a 4% pay increase for teachers in England for the 2025-26 academic year.
This recommendation comes despite the government originally budgeting for only a 2.8% rise. If accepted, this would mark the second consecutive year that ministers have agreed to higher-than-expected pay awards, following last year’s increases of between 4.75% and 6%.
Why Has a Higher Pay Rise Been Recommended?
The STRB is one of eight independent Pay Review Bodies that advise the government on public sector salaries. Their recommendations are based on a combination of factors, including:
- Comparisons with pay levels in the wider economy
- Recruitment and retention challenges
- Inflation forecasts
- The overall state of public finances
Following several years of industrial action across sectors such as health and education, pay remains a critical issue. Teacher unions, including the NASUWT and the National Education Union (NEU), have indicated that any attempt to fund pay rises through cuts or layoffs would risk renewed strike action.
While the government has yet to formally respond to the 4% recommendation, Health and Social Care Minister Stephen Kinnock has said that ministers will "give careful consideration" to the pay advice while stressing the need to maintain "fiscal discipline."
There is concern that funding the increases from existing budgets could put further pressure on schools, particularly if no additional money is provided. This could force schools to make difficult choices, including cutting staffing levels or reducing services, which teaching unions strongly oppose.
Leading economists, including Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, have warned that if the government honours the full pay rise recommendations without extra funding, it could face tough choices between raising taxes or cutting spending elsewhere.
What Happens Next?
- The government is expected to announce its decision in the coming weeks.
- If ministers accept the 4% rise without additional funding, it could reignite industrial tensions.
- If they reject the recommendation and stick to 2.8%, further strike threats could materialise.
The coming weeks will be crucial in determining how schools manage staffing, budgets, and future planning. Teachers, leaders, and education professionals will be watching closely to see how the government responds — and what it means for the future of the profession.