The Department for Education’s latest Teacher Demand and Postgraduate Trainee Need for 2026–27 report provides a detailed outlook on future workforce requirements across primary and secondary education in England.
The data points to a shift in demand over the coming years, with projected decreases in pupil numbers influencing both teacher demand and postgraduate trainee recruitment targets.
Overall Teacher Demand Set to Decline Slightly
By the 2027/28 academic year, total teacher demand is projected to reach 425,985 full-time equivalent (FTE) teachers, representing a decrease of 8,646 teachers (2.0%) compared to 2024/25.
This reduction aligns with a projected 3.0% fall in pupil numbers over the same period, indicating that changes in demand are largely being driven by demographic trends.
Despite this overall decrease, the data does not suggest a reduction in recruitment challenges, particularly in specific subjects and regions.
Primary Teacher Demand Reflects Falling Pupil Numbers
In primary education, teacher demand is expected to fall more significantly.
- Primary teacher demand (2027/28): 207,054 FTE
- Decrease of 8,577 teachers (4.0%) compared to 2024/25
- Pupil numbers projected to fall by 4.9%
This suggests that the reduction in demand is closely linked to declining pupil numbers in primary schools.
However, localised shortages may still occur depending on geography and school-specific needs.
Secondary Teacher Demand Remains Stable
In contrast, secondary teacher demand is expected to remain relatively stable.
- Secondary teacher demand (2027/28): 218,931 FTE
- Decrease of 69 teachers (0.0%) compared to 2024/25
- Pupil numbers projected to fall by 0.6%
The minimal change reflects a more consistent level of demand in secondary education, where subject specialisms and curriculum requirements continue to play a significant role in staffing needs.
Postgraduate Trainee Need Falls Across All Phases
The report also highlights a notable reduction in postgraduate initial teacher training (PGITT) targets for 2026/27.
- Primary PGITT trainee need: 5,520 (28% decrease compared to 2025/26)
- Secondary PGITT trainee need: 15,280 (21% decrease compared to 2025/26)
- Overall PGITT trainee need: 20,800 (23% decrease compared to 2025/26)
These reductions reflect the projected decrease in pupil numbers and overall teacher demand. However, this does not necessarily indicate that recruitment pressures will ease.
Recruitment and Workforce Pressures Remain
Despite lower trainee targets, wider workforce data suggests that schools continue to face staffing challenges.
There are currently 468,693 teachers in England, with vacancies rising to 2,800 in November 2023, a 20% increase year-on-year and more than double the figure recorded in 2020.
At the same time, new entrants into teaching have fallen to 44,002, a reduction of 3,900 compared to the previous year.
These trends highlight that recruitment and retention remain key factors influencing the education workforce, regardless of overall demand projections.
What This Means for the Education Sector
The latest data presents a more nuanced picture of teacher demand in England.
While headline figures show a slight decline in overall demand, several important factors remain:
- Demand is uneven across phases and subjects
- Secondary education continues to require specialist teachers
- Recruitment challenges persist despite lower trainee targets
- Local variations in supply and demand are likely to continue
For schools, this means workforce planning will still require flexibility, particularly when responding to short-term absences and unfilled vacancies.
The Future of Teacher Demand and Recruitment in England
The Teacher Demand and Postgraduate Trainee Need 2026–27 report reflects changing demographics within the school system, with falling pupil numbers influencing future workforce requirements.
However, the data also reinforces that teacher recruitment is not solely driven by demand projections. Retention, subject specialism shortages and regional differences will continue to shape the education labour market in the coming years.
As a result, schools and educators can expect a continued focus on balancing supply, demand and workforce sustainability across the sector.